Math Problems
We got to the beach for the day.
The cicada noise stopped when we crossed over the Bay Bridge. On one side, the cicadas were clocking in at 97 decibels, the volume of a jackhammer. On the other side, there was nothing except the soft wind rushing past the open window. Yes, I needed to open the window to check because it felt like we had stepped from a black-and-white film into technicolour.
But that isn’t the math problem.
This is the math problem. 42.1% of the US population has been fully vaccinated. 51.6% of the population is partially vaccinated. We were specifically in Delaware. In Delaware, 44.5% of the population is fully vaccinated, and 55.6% has received at least one dose. This is how that looks in the tracker.
44.5% is the smaller portion inside 55.6% showing the fully vaccinated population. The light grey part of the bar shows the completely unvaccinated. The ICU in the county in Delaware we were in is at 62% capacity, and they’re averaging 14 new cases per day.
There are signs going into town asking people to mask up if they’re unvaccinated. About 5% of the people we saw were wearing masks, which includes my family. The four of us are fully vaccinated, but we still wear a mask when we go indoors because (1) it is easy to do, (2) it makes people comfortable, (3) there are a lot of unvaccinated people out there, and (4) there are a lot of people who cannot be vaccinated yet due to age.
So we should have seen about 55.5% of people wearing a mask because they’re not fully vaccinated. Yet we saw maybe 5% wearing a mask (I’m being generous with that number), and only three dining establishments with staff wearing masks. (Thank you, Thrashers.) At least four of the masked people (that would be us) were fully vaccinated, which means the total number of unvaccinated people wearing masks is lower.
So either everyone unvaccinated is staying home. Or… and I know you’re going to be shocked by this… people who are unvaccinated are not wearing masks because there is no way to tell who is vaccinated and who is not vaccinated unless you ask to see a vaccination card.
Getting vaccines into bodies is clearly a goal, but at the most basic level, we know that wearing masks and washing hands helps prevent the spread of not only COVID-19 but many other diseases. Cases are finally going in the right direction, and I have a feeling we won’t see the true impact of the lack of masks until the fall because people are spending so much time outside. But we’ve seen this situation before… last summer.
Literally.
No, I’m sorry, it was actually lower on this day last summer, pre-vaccine.
So that’s the math problem. How do you make the two sides of the equation balance?
14 comments
I feel you on all of this. We are seeing similar things here in Denver. I don’t know how kids figure into the equation for the unvaccinated population. What percentage of the unvaccinated population are kids under 12 that are ineligible for the vaccine? Everyone seems to be unmasked now, even kids under 12 who we know do not have the vaccine…. My husband thinks I’m crazy, but I’m vaccinated and still wear my mask (especially indoors) and I make my young, vaccine uneligible, kids wear them too since they SHOULD be wearing them.
Well… maybe some of those unmasked, unvaccinated grown-ups and kids have already had covid… so, in theory, they may have at least some protection. That’s what I keep telling myself (as I am steering my younger 2 kids away from unmasked individuals).
We are just outside Philly, and our school district is debating whether or not to require masks next year. I don’t think we can do another year of virtual school. I don’t know what we are going to do… Unless we are able to join a clinical trial, I don’t think it would be possible for 11- and 7-year olds to be vaccinated before September. (And I am so happy that the 12-year old got both doses!!!)
Yep. Exactly this. Which I’ve been saying all along as a frontline worker…it’s SO disheartening and I can almost guarantee we aren’t done with this yet, as more travel opens up, and as people take vacations and get together. My neighbors spent the last 2 weeks with a house full of about 20 people (including ALL young kids) in a small split level home. I feel bad but I won’t let my kids play with them, it’s just not worth it.
A co-worker of mine with a 3 month, an 18 month old, and an 11 year old stepson who goes between houses. She spent her maternity leave out and about (parties with lots of other kids, the zoo several times, lots of dining out) she came back to work for one day and found out that night that her stepson, husband, and both kids were all coughing and sick and the stepson is positive for Covid. It’s still out there, and chancing things to have a good time is plain stupid (and pretty American, you don’t see other countries acting the way we have over this.) ARG.
~Steps off soapbox
Oh, and the reality of asking for vaccine cards is a joke because that’s a HIPPA violation and why no one is actually asking for them. Which is why mask wearing needs to be continued, because as you mathematically pointed out, there’s just no way to know.
Thank you so much for the post because I have been feeling so alone; even in my own family, the grandparents act annoyed that I ask them to quarantine before seeing our kids (infant, toddler, 7yo). They took therm to the pool without asking us and another child was there in a small baby pool with them. My husband describes me as self-righteous re: avoiding risk. At this point our school may not allow a fall virtual option and I am scared of delta and conflict in my marriage re COVID. It’s a lot. Thank you Mel for your post and for being so considerate as a family.
I read an article recently in WaPo about how;
In some places, the number of cases per 100,000 is actually as high as it was during the peak in January if you adjust for the unvaccinated population in the area. So if you’re looking at the number of cases out of the number of only unvaccinated individuals, they are still at as much risk as they were during the peak, more so actually because the lower numbers in their area make them feel safer, even though, being unvaccinated, they are not.(I’m not sure how the math plays out with the actual reduced community spread meeting their more relaxed precautious, but it’s not the math they are doing in their own heads).
Where we are, vaccination rates are much higher and numbers are VERY low (there was nobody with Covid at SF General recently), but in other parts of the country that is just not the case. Unvaccinated people think they are safer but they are not. It’s really sad that they don’t understand that and are putting themselves at risk because they don’t understand.
I also read an article about how much harder it is for a loved one to die of Covid now that vaccines have been widely available. It just adds a layer of complication to the grieving process, both personally and in the community.
This is the WaPo article about actual case numbers adjusted for unvaccinated population:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/interactive/2021/covid-rates-unvaccinated-people/
This is the NYT piece about the complicated grief felt when a loved one died of Covid when vaccines have been widely available and everyone else has moved on:
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/31/us/coronavirus-deaths-vaccine.html
Yes to all of this. It is so frustrating. We have an even higher percentage unvaccinated in my area and I see so few wearing masks; and the masked include my vaccinated family and friends. So. It’s not great. And I’m really concerned for my unvaccinated kids. They obviously mask (we all do) but I am very cautious about taking them anywhere indoors due to the increasing risk of running into unmasked, unvaccinated people.
My younger daughter is reading Harry Potter right now. At the end of The Goblet of Fire the Death Eaters all turn up in the cemetery, after living freely for years by lying and saying they did not support Voldemort. Later that day we were discussing that we would probably need to return to curbside only at our library because, with the new mask rules, there is a good chance people who are unvaccinated could come in without a mask. Her response was that they are like the Death Eaters – “pretending to be good and getting the shot but really not doing it.”
Not that I’m encouraging judgment of others’ choices. But she’s a bit spot on with that one.
Asking for proof of vaccination has nothing to do with HIPAA, which only applies to health plans, health care clearinghouses, and most health care providers. It doesn’t apply at all to restaurants, retail stores, and the like. *stepping off my soapbox*
I GUARANTEE that there are loads of folks in my community who are unvaccinated, also never had COVID-19, and yet are still going out and about without masks. I don’t have to do the math to know this; it’s common sense.
I have been seriously tempted to buy a button to wear that says “I’m vaccinated” because I would hate for anyone to think that I am entering a business unmasked because I am a COVID denier or anti-vax vs. safe(r) to be out without a mask.
I feel silly, wandering around with both my antibodies and my mask. My child’s 2nd shot is scheduled for Saturday, so the two of us will be good. But I can no longer trust people and don’t want to breathe the same air without some sort of barrier.
(My husband may be convinced by the VA doctor to get the vaccine when he has his appointment, but I’m doubtful. On the other hand, he doesn’t really go anywhere, so his risk is mainly from the kid and me. And we’re still wearing masks.)
Yep yep yep. At the beginning of the pandemic WHICH IS NOT OVER I signed up for NYT emails and I am so tired of the “it’s over, the science says drop the mask, kids don’t get covid, here’s why you should stop worrying” BS they push. Along with reckless reopeners like Monica Ghandi.
We’ll see what happens here in California when restrictions end in a week, with maskless fools coming in from all over (I live in a tourism-heavy area) bringing who knows what variants. I think we are missing a lot of cases bc testing has gone way down. I was looking into testing locally and there are a lot less locations/times available than there were a few months ago. Not good.
I naively thought this type of thing would be happening in California, early last spring (instead, real contact tracing is nonexistent): https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/shopping-centre-office-building-and-costco-among-melbournes-new-covid-exposure-sites-c-3021003
Yeah. The numbers are extremely disheartening. For anyone who’s spent time with Public Health, it’s not shocking. Asking people to do things that are inconvenient (masking, getting vaccinated, washing your hands, etc) will result in low compliance, even if it benefits them. It needs to be painful to not comply. Be that inability to attend school (many claim they will homeschool, but drop that once they realize there are standards), social stigma, and even increasing insurance premiums (think tobacco user penalties) are a few things that need to be implemented combined with easy access to vaccines, increasing education, and even free beer.
Meanwhile, we also need plans to get the rest of the world vaccinated. Cause the end of this pandemic requires that.
So yes to the numbers. Yes to the frustration (we absolutely live with it) and yes to remaining cautious. Because I’m also waiting for the first data to emerge about long term health consequences. And though I like mechanism, I also anticipate that the generational impacts will leave many wishing they had just worn a mask.
This is my thoughts exactly when I heard that if you are fully vaccinated, you don’t need a mask…but from the way the US is, there are so many people not wanting to wear a mask anyway, that you know they are just going to go without, vaccinated or not.
I have only gotten my first vaccine. The 2nd one won’t happen until after 3 months (it’s how Finland is doing it). Currently, people 33 years or older are being vaccinated in my town. Each week, the age limit goes lower. And kids 16 and under aren’t currently planned to get vaccinated. Also kids under 16 don’t need to wear a mask out in public and most have been IN the classroom for school or daycare (some high schools might be doing remote learning).
I’m thinking I’ll still be wearing a mask once I’m fully vaccinated. Unless things change here. However, here in Finland, the number of cases, per 100 000 people has been much lower then the US and even lower (in general) in my town.
Stay safe and sane!
I’m with you, Mel. I don’t think mask mandates are going to be dropped here (Ontario, Canada) anytime soon (I certainly hope not), and even when they are, I am sure I will still be wearing masks in certain places/situations for some time to come. I wish I had more faith in more people to do the right things, but so far, the evidence has not been very compelling…!
We’ve been under our THIRD lockdown until just this past weekend… it’s going to be a staged reopening, tied to (among other criteria) vaccination rates. Stage one started Friday, and a few things reopened, including non-essential retail at 15% capacity and outdoor/patio dining. People are going wild. My social media feeds are full of photos of people on patios and at pool parties, etc. No masks in sight. I understand, it’s summer and it’s been a looonnnnggggg 15 months. BUT. While our numbers are down from their peak in mid-April, they are nowhere near zero yet — and the Delta/Indian variant is circulating and starting to spread. We’re doing great in terms of adults who have one vaccination (about 75%), but we’re only just getting second shots off the ground (about 14%). It’s a race against time to get more people fully vaccinated before we get swamped by Wave #4 and have to shut down again. Sigh.
I’m a mon of a vaccine injured child. My child had seizures after his two month old vaccines and his pediatrician and neurologist still to this day refuse to acknowledge it or offer a medical exemption. Thank God I live in a state that is vaccine choice friendly. That being said, vaccines may have some benefits but they also have risks and yes, those risks are considered “rare” by the medical community, even though really they are just underreported like my son, but if you are vaccinated and you choose to wear a mask, why are you so worried about what other people choose to do with their bodies? If the vaccine works and your mask work, then your fear is comforted. Encouraging businesses to force vaccines is terrifying for people like my son. I understand you are scared of covid, but I’m terrified of my child seizing again for weeks and the drs refusing to acknowledge it or be able to stop it, diagnose it, or explain it. I held my son in my arms for three weeks and watched him seize multiple times a day because of vaccine that I was told was “safe” so I am begging you, please do a little research other than the CDC, maybe check out #believemothers and be willing to listen to the other side just a little. If you want a vaccine and your mask, cool, go for it. You have that right, but please stop spreading the fear. Covid has a 99% survival rate. My son barely survived his seizures and my husband’s career in hospitality was destroyed by this. So, please do a little research on the other side, take time to listen to people whose lives have almost been destroyed by this instead of just listening to the Today show.